This column, from the weekly opinion piece MATTER OF FACT, first appeared on BrooklynReporter.com, the Home Reporter and Spectator dated June 26, 2020
8.7 million Americans. That is how many Americans may have contracted COVID-19 in March without it ever being diagnosed.
A new study published in the Science Translational Medicine journal reviewed CDC data from all 50 states, identifying cases where doctors had treated patients with flu-like symptoms during three weeks in March. The surge researchers observed of those who were treated for influenza-like illness during that period was combined with historical data from the annual flu epidemic and took into account that many began to avoid seeking medical care as the coronavirus pandemic accelerated at that time.
To date, there have only been 2.3 million confirmed cases of the virus in the United States and during the period in March this study analyzed, only about 100,000 cases were officially recorded. That would mean that as many as 80 percent of all Americans infected at that time went undiagnosed, which would not be surprising, given that there was an extreme shortage of testing kits available then.
Following that period, when testing increased and shutdowns were enacted in most cities across the country, the spread of the virus definitely slowed, but a quick look at a graph of the 7-day average of new daily coronavirus cases is troubling. While the numbers did eventually begin to trend downward throughout April and May, those improvements have been moderate and they have begun to trend upwards the past week to a point where they are approaching the highs we were seeing two months ago.
Some say that the increase in testing is the only reason the number of confirmed cases are as high as they are. Granted, more testing helps to identify a greater percentage of the cases that exist, but if you look at Europe’s graph, where there has been a similar increase in testing, they have dramatically come down the other side of their surge in cases.
“When we need to be dousing the flames with water, we are stuck with someone who prefers to pour gasoline on the fire.”
President Trump has been alluding to testing making the numbers seem bad for months. Back in the early weeks of the outbreak, he was openly resistant to increasing testing to the levels experts were calling for, at a time when it was most important to begin identifying those infected to slow the spread of the virus.
Trump said at his June 20 political rally in Tulsa, OK that increased testing causes the number of confirmed cases to be higher, so he ordered his people “to slow the testing down.” Officials from the White House and his campaign then said he was just joking about that, but when he was asked about it two days later, he refused to deny ordering testing to be slowed down and a day after that, when he was asked if he was kidding, he replied, “I don’t kid.”
Over 120,000 dead Americans is not something to joke about, but as he said, he was not kidding. As he has said many times, rather than viewing increased testing as a way to identify where the virus is and help to better contain its spread, he feels it just generates higher numbers that reflect poorly on him.
Like with everything else, it is not about what is best for Americans, but instead what is best for Donald Trump. At a time when 29 states are showing increases in the spread of the virus, he is focused on making it appear as though things are improving by simply not looking for it as much.
If we continue on the path we are on, epidemiologists are now warning that we need to stop thinking about this pandemic in terms of a first wave and a second wave because before we have ever truly recovered from the initial outbreak, we appear to be moving toward another surge that may soon surpass the highpoint we reached back in early April.
Rather than a series of distinct waves, it is more like we are dealing with a forest fire that we are no longer trying to address in any serious way. When we need to be dousing the flames with water, we are stuck with someone who prefers to pour gasoline on the fire.
