This column, from the weekly opinion piece MATTER OF FACT, first appeared on BrooklynReporter.com, the Home Reporter and Spectator dated August 25, 2023
The headline read, “Kindergarten enrollment rates among the highest declines as families flee NYC DOE” from a piece that ran in the New York Post earlier this month. Though statistically speaking it is true that there have been enrollment drops across the city’s public schools, with kindergarten seeing one of the more significant declines, the conclusion that lower admission rates is reflective of the state of the DOE or that these declines are only happening to public schools is statistically incorrect.
The article cited how kindergarten admission dropped 17 percent this year, compared to seven years ago. While this is accurate, when looking at New York City birth rates, the figure between 2012 to 2016 was stagnant, with only about a one percent deviation among those five years. However, by 2018, which is the birth year for all children beginning kindergarten this year, it had fallen more than 12 percent from those rates.
Far fewer kids being born will certainly contribute to fewer kids enrolling in kindergarten in area public schools five years later, though the article characterized the change as an indictment of the DOE by declaring “parents reject the troubled system,” these declines have not only been seen in the public school system.
In New York City, during the seven-year period cited to show public school kindergarten admission declines, the city’s private schools have seen an even larger drop-off, with a 19 percent decline. Independent schools decline has been 23 percent during the time, and for Catholic schools, their kindergarten admissions have decreased by 35 percent.
The article quotes several parents and people involved in the education field, all of whom are charter school advocates. When it comes to charters, the one charter school referenced in the piece saw a 25 percent decline in kindergarten admissions in just the last year alone, while Success Academy, the city’s largest charter network, has had more than a 10 percent decrease in the past year.
The city has lost people. That includes families with children. New York City public schools will see far fewer students entering kindergarten in a few weeks than what they used to see pre-pandemic, but so will private schools and independent schools and Catholic schools and charter schools. The oversimplification that these declines prove that public schools, in general, are failing, ignores the fact that non-public schools are facing the same admissions losses.
This selective statistical referencing is a continuation of rhetoric aimed to attack public schools, build mistrust in the system, and steer us toward increased privatization of schools. No doubt, public schools face challenges, some more than others, but the public school system is not failing, as some would have the public believe.
So why is New York City seeing such significant admission declines in all schools, both public, private, independent, and charter? There is no single reason. It is a complex matter that was further complicated by the pandemic and how so many families’ lives have changed coming out of the pandemic.
Some families moved away during the early days of COVID. Some of those did so because they were out of work, while others left because their work shifting to a remote environment allowed them to work from anywhere.
Some other factors seem to be more deeply embedded and not about to subside any time soon. Affordability in the city, overall but particularly with respect to housing costs, is driving many families out of New York City. The lack of affordable (or better yet, free) childcare is also a deterrent to keeping young, working families here to raise their families in New York and contribute to its economy.
We have to have honest discussions about all of these issues and what can be done to make our city more livable, affordable, and supportive of families with children in school. Just as there is no single cause for why we have seen declines in population and, subsequently, in kindergarten admissions, there is no single solution to turn this ship around. It behooves us all to avoid falling for attempts to make us scapegoat a system that is serving us throughout these challenges, based on conveniently incomplete information.
